Goyal’s target to cease thermal coal imports into India looks like a commercial certainty—imported coal-fired power generation is the risky, high cost option. Renewable energy capacity is targeted to increase fivefold to 258GW, and investment in other zero emission technologies (nuclear and large hydro) are targeted for a near doubling, to 94GW…Indian solar tariffs of US$54/MWh are likely to continue falling by 5 to 20 percent annually for the next decade…All this news from India bodes ill for international coal markets, and raises questions about an Australian project we have followed closely.
In IEEFA’s view the only way the Carmichael proposal can proceed is with a massive government subsidy to underwrite as much as AU$10 billion of project risk involved. While the North Australia Infrastructure Fund (NAIF) has been pushed to provide a subsidy of $AU 1 billion, the balance remains unfunded and is a key project risk.
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